Budgets not begging bowls

Good afternoon. Just as Mozambique’s rainy season comes round every year in October, so, it seems, does the news that the government is short of money to deal with it. The latest estimate of the deficit is MZN9bn ($142m), according to the Coordinating Council for Disaster Risk Management (see below).

For a start, the figure is probably unreliable. It is a standard tactic of government to inflate its stated financial needs in the expectation that donors will never give it the full amount. The only problem with this approach is that it doesn't work. Donor agencies are not stupid enough to just take the government figure and halve it; they try to address what actual needs are, and they are well aware that inflation goes on. If they under-deliver, it is not an arbitrary decision, although it may reflect shortage of available funds. 

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From the Zitamar Live Blog:

Zitamar Mozambique Live Blog

A meeting between President Filipe Nyusi and presidential candidates in last month’s elections was adjourned earlier today after just 20 minutes, without reaching any agreement. The meeting, which was meant to discuss the politicial crisis and disorder following the disputed elections, was attended by Nyusi; Ossufo Momade of Renamo; Daniel Chapo of ruling party Frelimo; and Lutero Simango of the MDM party, but not by Venâncio Mondlane, who claims that he and not Chapo is the rightful winner of the presidential election. In a separate live video on Facebook, Mondlane said that he had not had any response from Nyusi’s office to the agenda points he had proposed for the meeting. The guests argued that there was no point in the meeting without Mondlane’s presence. No new date has been agreed for a second meeting.

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But the government's whole approach in relying on donors to pay for rainy season relief is questionable. This deficit announcement is undoubtedly meant to encourage donor agencies to step up and offer funding. Indeed, the government routinely plans its budgets on the basis that donor agencies will fill a certain funding gap.