Good afternoon. Tomorrow the city of Maputo could well see its biggest popular protest since Mozambique became independent 49 years ago. Venâncio Mondlane, who insists he is the rightful winner of last month's presidential election, has called for four million people to flood the streets. Defence minister Cristóvão Chume meanwhile has promised that the armed forces, who have a barracks in the capital, will protect the government from a coup if necessary (see below).
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Mondlane has stopped short of calling explicitly for a coup, but he is clearly trying to whip up enthusiasm among his supporters by talking about “revolution” and making references to the fall of the regime of ruling party Frelimo.
In theory, anything could happen tomorrow, although it should be said that the armed forces are probably strong enough to prevent a violent takeover of the government by protesters, and the security forces have seemed completely loyal so far. Privately, government sources are saying that they intend to allow the march to take place, as long as it is peaceful, and that they would like the police to show more restraint. Sources within the security forces believe that the police, with their heavy-handed use of live ammunition that has already claimed at least 16 lives, have provoked much of the civilian violence.