Good afternoon. Mozambique’s new largest opposition party, Podemos, took its seats in parliament this morning, alongside the new MPs of Frelimo, the party which retains an overwhelming majority there. The third- and fourth-placed parties, Renamo and the MDM, boycotted the ceremony — though precedent suggests they will take up their seats before too long.
Thus it was Podemos, which has been protesting against what it (and most observers) claim are fraudulent election results, which saved Frelimo from the embarrassing spectacle of swearing in a one-party parliament today.
The decision to do so — which faced opposition both within Podemos and from the presidential candidate that the party supported, Venancio Mondlane — was likely taken at least in part due to pressure from Frelimo and the authorities, who have blamed Podemos, among others, for the demonstrations and strikes that have followed October’s disputed elections.
But it was also taken by Podemos politicians’ own free will. Beyond the personal benefits of being a sitting MP, the ongoing relevance of the party in Mozambican politics will depend on whether it can become an active and constructive opposition to Frelimo. Renamo, and even more so the MDM, are sliding into irrelevance. Podemos has taken their place as the leaders of the opposition.
Podemos was born of Frelimo dissidents, so many of its leaders’ instincts are not so reflexively anti-Frelimo as the traditional opposition parties which have opposed Frelimo more or less since independence. Frelimo’s majority may be illegitimate, but Podemos’ decision to sit in parliament today may be the most pragmatic approach — while still claiming that the election results were fraudulent. If nothing else is achieved, the party can provide a dissenting voice for the next half-decade of Frelimo government — and build on this year’s result in the next election cycle.
But that strategy is not without risk. Venâncio Mondlane’s next move could be to create his own political party, and to paint Podemos as collaborators with the Frelimo regime. Podemos will need real achievements in the coming term to avoid being eaten by a more hardline opponent of Frelimo.
Agenda:
- Monday: Swearing-in of members of parliament
- Wednesday: Inauguration of president-elect Daniel Chapo
Today’s headlines:
- Journalist and Podemos politician Arlindo Chissale missing and incommunicado (Integrity)
- Mondlane calls for new demonstrations until Wednesday (Lusa, VOA, RFI)
- Police accuse Mondlane of funding to prevent inauguration (O País, AIM)
- Mondlane says he’s ready for ‘peace talks’ (Lusa)
- Another kidnapping in Maputo city (O País, Integrity)
- Frelimo calls Central Committee meeting for 14 February (AIM, VOA)
Journalist and Podemos politician Arlindo Chissale missing and incommunicado (Integrity)
The journalist and member of Podemos, the party that supported presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, has been missing and incommunicado since Tuesday last week. Before his disappearance, Chissale said he was travelling from Pemba in Cabo Delgado to his home in Nacala-Porto, Nampula province, according to his wife. Chissale's last public appearance was on 2 January, alongside Singano Assane, coordinator of Podemos and defender of Venancio Mondlane in Cabo Delgado, when they protested the murder of a member of Podemos in the Montepuez district.
Several members of the Podemos party and figures close to Venâncio Mondlane have been targeted for assassination in the province of Cabo Delgado, as part of what Mondlane calls a silent genocide. The circumstances of Chissale's disappearance suggest that it was politically motivated. Chissale was one of the members of Renamo who, along with Mondlane, joined the Democratic Alliance coalition and later Podemos. He is also the founder of Pinnacle News, the crowdsourced social media-based news outlet focussing on the north of the country.
