Bogged down in Macomia

Good afternoon. It has been over three months since Rwandan and Mozambican security forces launched their joint offensive against Islamic State-backed insurgents in Cabo Delgado province’s Macomia district. When it began, hopes were high that the offensive could pacify Macomia in a matter of weeks. Those hopes have faded away. The offensive is dragging on, and there is no sign that victory is getting closer.

The district town of Macomia may have been secured, along with the coastline, but control of the countryside in one of Cabo Delgado’s bigger districts remains uncertain. In particular, the insurgents are holding on to their stronghold in the Catupa forest. Government claims that the administrative posts of Mucojo and Quiterajo have been secured do not match up with reports of insurgent activity there, and satellite images showed widespread fires across Quiterajo yesterday.

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From the Zitamar Live Blog:

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The reasons behind this slow progress remain unclear, but it seems that the fighting capability of the Rwandan forces is less than it was when they were clearing insurgents out of the Mbau administrative post earlier this year. They may be better at holding positions and patrolling than at guerrilla combat, which is fast moving, physically demanding and requires the covering of long distances on foot without vehicles or air support.